Türkiye's Nations League fate to be decided: what are the scenarios for avoiding relegation?

Türkiye's senior national team go into the final two rounds of the UEFA Nations League A group stage under threat of relegation. Beaten in all four of their matches in Group 1, which also features France, Italy and Belgium, Türkiye are yet to get a point on the board. Head coach Sergen Yalçın's side host Belgium on 12 November before travelling to France on 15 November. Because of the new format to be introduced in the UEFA Nations League, Türkiye's future in League A will be determined not only by their position in their own group but also by results in the other groups.

UEFA will change the structure of the Nations League from the 2028/29 season. Teams that currently compete across four separate leagues will be placed in three leagues in the new era, with each league made up of 18 teams. As part of this change, the two worst of the four bottom-placed teams in League A will be relegated directly to League B, while the other two will contest play-offs against the League B group runners-up. The ties will be played in March 2027. Finishing bottom of a group will therefore not mean direct relegation for every team.

Türkiye also sit last among the bottom-placed teams. After four rounds in League A, Türkiye, Serbia and Czechia are all still without a point. With a goal difference of minus 9, the Turkish side are in the worst position of the three. Serbia have a goal difference of minus 5 and Czechia minus 8. Wales, bottom of the other group, have collected 3 points. As things stand, Türkiye and Czechia occupy the direct relegation places.

The points Türkiye pick up in their remaining two matches could change that ranking. Should the Turkish side lose both games, the likelihood of direct relegation will be very high. A draw or a win, meanwhile, could improve their chances of a play-off, depending on results in the other groups. However, simply adding to their own tally may not be enough for Türkiye; the performances of Serbia, Czechia and Wales over the final two rounds will also play a decisive part.

The Belgium match represents the last chance of finishing third. It remains mathematically possible for Türkiye to end the group in third place. In a group where France have 10 points, Italy 7 and Belgium 6, the Turkish side would reach 6 points by winning their remaining two matches. For third place, however, Belgium would also need to lose to Italy in the final round.

If the two teams finish level on points, the head-to-head record will be decisive. Türkiye lost the first meeting with Belgium 3-0 away from home. A victory by a margin of at least four goals would therefore give the Turkish side the upper hand on head-to-head goal difference. A three-goal win, meanwhile, would bring the other tie-breaking criteria between the two teams into play. Should Türkiye beat Belgium by one or two goals, the head-to-head advantage would stay with Belgium in the event of a tie on points.

For Türkiye to be relegated directly from League A, they would have to finish bottom of their group and be one of the two worst of the four bottom-placed teams. Should the Turkish side finish above the other bottom-placed teams in that ranking, however, they could avoid direct relegation to League B and earn the right to contest a play-off.